I was recently reminded of Amara’s “Law”, an adage by American scientist and futurist Roy Amara on the challenges of forecasting the effects of technology; in particular, encouraging people to think about the long-term impact of technology:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
Roy Charles Amara (1925-2007)
It might be best illustrated by Gartner’s popularised hype cycle, characterised by the “peak of inflated expectations” followed by the “trough of disillusionment”. For example, see: artificial intelligence, virtual reality, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, etc…